Probabilites In Politics

I'm a big probability guy; I'm all about looking at the odds when making choices in life and politics. Now that the table is set with the players for the 2024 election and the future of this nation, possibly for the next decade, we're faced with a big decision.

Most years, we don't really pay much attention to the vice presidential candidates. We are a media—and celebrity-driven culture, and all too often, we vote for a face or our passion about a single issue rather than looking at the overall health of our nation down the road. 

This year, we need to think long and hard about each political party's VP choice. There is no reason to believe that either Walz or Vance is likely to be called on to run our nation, but it could happen. It's happened nine times in our 248 years: John Tyler, Millard Fillmore, Andrew Johnson, Chester Arthur, Theodore Roosevelt, Calvin Coolidge, Harry Truman, Lyndon Johnson, and Gerald Ford.

So, let's look at some odds of the presidential candidates serving out their term. Kamala looks bright, spry, and healthy. The odds of her checking out in office seem pretty long. Trump, on the other hand, has several factors that are concerning. First, he's pretty damned old - 78, to be precise, and he doesn't exactly look to be the picture of good health. If the stories are true, the guy lives on cheeseburgers. 

Trump also seems to be slipping badly in the cognition department. Having never been the sharpest knife in the drawer, he doesn't have far to go to be around the bend. And, he has a number of indictments that could lead to either his impeachment or resignation, Ala Nixon.

In my book, that makes Trump a better bet to short-circuit during a presidential term than Harris. But what if either of them is unable to finish their term? Suddenly, the vice president becomes very interesting and important.

Looking at that choice, we have Tim Walz on the one hand, a man with a long record of public service, both in government and as an educator. By all accounts, this is someone everyone would want for their favorite uncle. He's on the right side of most issues, meaning he leans left to try to ensure everyone is treated fairly. If there's a criticism at this point, he might seem too good to be true. I'm sure the GOP will find a few flaws, real or imagined, with the help of FOX Faux News.

On the other hand, we have J.D. Vance, a guy who seems to have had trouble settling on his name, gender identification, political affiliations, and religious beliefs. The guy is all over the place, like creamed asparagus from a one-year-old's mouth. He would have us believe that, for now, he is centered on who he is and what he believes.

Pious Pete has a real hangup about women who might choose not to be mothers or maybe even get married. He confesses to being a couch potato—or is that a pounder? Perhaps, if he's as devout as he would have you believe, he might have laid on his back on that couch and read what Jesus said about being kind to others as opposed to lying on his stomach getting it on with a rubber glove.

Now, back to the possibility that one of these two people might ascend to the office of the presidency. Which one would you like to see in that position? For me, the odds point solidly toward Tim Walz as the guy with the intellect and self-control to be president if called on to do so.